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Angel Investing Strategy: Portfolio Diversification, Returns, and How Angels Pick Winners

June 11, 2024

After new members complete our Angel Investing 101 onboarding series, we send a deeper follow-up sequence covering strategy.

The below lessons focus on how experienced angels actually approach:

  • diversification
  • portfolio construction
  • deal selection
  • budgeting
  • founder relationships

This is the next layer of angel investing once you understand the basics.

— C2K

Lesson 1: The #1 Rule of Angel Investing — Diversification

Back in 2020 AngelList published a blockbuster insight on early-stage investing.

The conventional wisdom was (and still is):

Make a small number of highly concentrated bets and double down on the ones that get hot.

“Spray and Pray” is often used with derision to describe investors who take the opposite approach.

But when AngelList analyzed decades of data, they determined something surprising.

The best strategy for pre-seed and seed investors is often the opposite:

Broadly index the market by investing in many credible deals.

And they have the receipts to prove it.

Their own AngelList Access Fund — effectively an index of AngelList deals — became a top decile performing fund.

The downside?

It costs $50K per quarter to access.

Great returns, but a high price tag and no fun.

The good news is you don’t have to index the entire startup market.

Research shows you start seeing diversification benefits at around 30 investments.

Which makes sense.

What’s the smartest way to invest in public markets?

Index funds.

Diversification is a powerful unlock in investing, and startups are no exception.

Once you internalize this, you’ll never think about angel investing the same way again.

Our favorite resources on this topic:

Play Money is the easy button for building your own startup index fund.

Lesson 2: Startup Returns — Where Angel Profits Actually Come From

“How much can I make and how soon will I see returns?”

Almost every angel asks this early on.

Here’s what 500 Startups saw after 10 years and 2,500 investments.

Distribution of Startup Returns

  • 50% of startups return 0x
  • 40% return 1x–3x (this gets you roughly to breakeven)
  • 8% return ~20x
  • 2% return 50–100x
  • And occasionally you get a 1000x outcome like Uber or Airbnb

This is the famous Power Law of venture returns.

Roughly 10% of companies drive nearly all profits.

There is a lot to unpack here.

In about 15 minutes you can learn more about:

  • The Power Law
  • Dilution and doubling down
  • The J-Curve (why your portfolio may look terrible early)
  • Tax strategies angels should know
  • How to track investments over time

👉 See: What Happens After You Click Invest

Lesson 3: How Play Money Selects Angel Deals

A question that often comes up in our office hours:

Isn’t it safer to invest in later-stage deals like Series A or Series B?

Technically, failure rates are lower at later stages.

But that doesn’t automatically make them better investments.

Later-stage rounds also have:

  • higher valuations
  • more competition
  • potential negative signaling

Every investor develops their own angel style.

Here’s what we look for at Play Money.

Pre-Seed and Seed Deals

At the earliest stages, startups still need:

  • capital
  • connections
  • credibility

That means angels can play a meaningful role.

There is also usually less adverse selection compared to some later-stage deals.

Deals Backed by Professional Investors

We often look for deals backed by:

  • emerging fund managers
  • super angels
  • high-velocity angel groups

These investors see hundreds of deals for every investment they make.

They also perform diligence most angels can’t easily access, including:

  • legal documents
  • cap tables
  • founder background checks

Emerging Funds Leading Rounds

You won’t always recognize the names of funds sharing deals on Play Money.

That’s actually a good thing.

Historically, smaller and newer venture funds (often Funds I–IV under $50M) often outperform larger funds.

Investing alongside them can be powerful.

And occasionally you may even discover a fund you want to LP into yourself.

Lesson 4: Angel Investing Case Studies

One of the most common requests we hear from angels:

“Show us more real-world examples.”

Case studies are one of the best ways to learn.

Here are some of our favorites.

These examples make the math behind angel investing much easier to understand.

Lesson 5: How to Budget for Angel Investing

Almost no one talks about budgeting for angel investing.

But if you want to treat angel investing as both:

  • an activity
  • and an asset class

then budgeting matters.

Here are four important considerations.

1. Angel Investing as Part of Your Portfolio

Many investors allocate 5–10% of their assets to early-stage startups as part of a diversified portfolio.

2. Pacing Your Investments

Spread investments over 3–5 years.

Aim for 10 investments per year.

Think of it like dollar-cost averaging into an ETF.

3. Check Size

For many angels this means writing smaller checks.

Fun fact:

The average Play Money investment is about $2,100.

4. Non-Financial Returns

Angel investing often delivers value beyond money.

Investors frequently budget for benefits like:

  • professional development
  • community membership
  • industry learning
  • social impact

Angel investing can be a deeply rewarding intellectual hobby.

One Final Rule

Angel investing is very long-term.

Only invest money you won’t need for 10+ years.

One potential source of long-term capital?

Retirement accounts.

(Yes, angel investing from an IRA is possible.)

Lesson 6: How to Be a Great Angel Investor

One of the best parts of angel investing is supporting founders.

But many people assume you must have:

  • deep industry expertise
  • direct founder access
  • or a large check

Not true.

I spent 12 years as a founder, and some of my smallest investors were the most valuable people on my cap table.

Here’s what they did.

  • Responded to investor updates
  • Amplified the company on social media
  • Made helpful introductions

Double opt-in intros are especially appreciated.

The best angels are empathetic humans first, investors second.

Play Money makes this easier through how we structure SPVs.

  • We share investor contact information with founders
  • Founders can send updates directly to angels
  • We are building tools to surface investor expertise
  • We host post-investment events connecting angels and founders

One final thought from a founder turned angel.

Most startups won’t succeed.

But that doesn’t mean the founder failed.

Founders often push far past the point most rational people would quit.

The best angels stay gracious and supportive even when things don’t work out.

Lesson 7: How Angel Investors Pick Startup Winners

We recently asked experienced angels on Play Money what information they rely on when making investment decisions.

The results were fascinating.

Everyone has their own angel investing style.

And that’s perfectly fine.

The diversification research from AngelList suggests there isn’t a single correct way to evaluate startups.

Luck and timing are always major factors.

Professional investors often say the one constant is Team.

Execution speed, learning ability, and founder vision are often the strongest signals.

And still…

Airbnb and Canva were rejected by hundreds of professional investors.

Every startup has limited data.

But every angel has a lifetime of experiences informing their judgment.

Your:

  • lived experiences
  • curiosities
  • intuition about people

all become part of your personal investing edge.

You are already a better angel investor than you think.

Feedback loops in angel aren't fast. So, developing and articulating your Angel style is another avenue for learning and playing.

Here are some of my favorites:

1. Hustle Fund has a popular 5-category framework that covers: Team, Problem, Solution, Market, Traction. (And they really like SaaS.)

2. Katie Dunnhas a short and sweet thesis: Investing in underrepresented pre-seed/seed stage founders, primarily in CPG and Tech.

3. Erica Wenger has a well thought out vision for Elephants not Unicorns that guides her investing. (I am a huge fan.)

4. Bryce Roberts sees a future of permissionless entrepreneurshipand is using it to reshape how investing is structured. (I am a the ultimate fan)

5. Keith Gill (Roaring Kitty) just likes the stock. 😉

My Personal Framework

When evaluating a startup, I ask five simple questions:

  • Will I wake up excited to be along for the ride?
  • Is there an earned insight that captures my imagination?
  • When things go wrong, is the founder resilient enough to adapt?
  • If everything goes right, could this become a 25x outcome?
  • Does the founder communicate openly with investors?

Then I unpack my reaction to understand the reasoning behind my gut.

Angel investing feedback loops are slow.

Developing and refining your angel style is part of the learning process.

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Play Money makes angel investing accessible by helping everyday angels build diversified startup portfolios without turning it into a full-time job.

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